EVIDENCE·FILE
LAST UPDATED 21.09.2026
EN
PART G

What was never demonstrated over the long term

Approval trials run six to eight weeks. Patients take the drugs for years. That gap is the most substantive question in this entire file — and the evidence there is distinctly weaker.

PEER-REVIEWED STAR*D · BMJ OPEN 2023
RIAT REANALYSIS
NIMH, $35M

The largest antidepressant trial ever conducted, re-measured

STAR*D was funded with $35 million from the NIMH — public money, not a company's — to answer what happens to real patients. The 2006 publication reported cumulative remission of 67% after up to four successive treatment steps. It became one of the most widely cited statistics in psychiatry.

In 2023 an independent group took the patient-level data and repeated the analysis faithfully to the study's own original protocol. The result, verbatim from the abstract: “in contrast to the reported 67%, the rate was 35.0% when the HRSD scale specified by the protocol and the inclusion criteria were used”.

The discrepancies the authors document — and which the original investigators dispute: the final publication measured remission with a non-blinded scale, whereas the protocol specified a blinded one and explicitly excluded clinician-administered measures as outcome measures; 931 patients were included without a blind-rated baseline score, among them 99 who already met the remission criterion at entry; 125 were included who were in remission at the start of a subsequent step; and 370 who withdrew after the first visit were excluded.

Two later reanalyses by the same group — preprints, not peer-reviewed — report remission sustained throughout the 12 months of follow-up at 3.1–8.4% (switch arm) and 4.9–12.5% (augmentation arm), the range reflecting stricter or looser criteria for the missing data.

The original investigators published a reply defending the 67%. The controversy is open — but the 2023 reanalysis is peer-reviewed and the data are public, so anyone can check who is right.

[26] Pigott HE, Kim T, Xu C, Kirsch I, Amsterdam J. BMJ Open 2023;13(7):e063095 · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2022-063095 · [27][28] medRxiv preprints 2025 · [29] reply: Rush AJ et al. Am J Psychiatry 2023
DISPUTED DESIGN FLAW IN
MAINTENANCE TRIALS
FDA DATA

The trials that “prove” long-term benefit are measuring something else as well

Every trial that supports long-term use has the same design: patients stabilised on the drug are randomised into “continue” and “switch abruptly to placebo”. The difference in relapses is recorded as a protective effect.

The problem: abrupt discontinuation causes withdrawal, and no rating scale distinguishes withdrawal from relapse. Part of what is measured as “relapse” may be a withdrawal syndrome.

In an analysis of 14 relapse-prevention trials submitted to the FDA (mean follow-up 38.9 weeks), the drug–placebo difference accumulates very early: 50.3% by week 6, 69.0% by week 12, 101.0% by week 24 — and then it stops. The authors argue that this distribution fits the timing of withdrawal, not protection from relapse, which would be spread evenly.

Hengartner's conclusion, verbatim: “at present there is no reliable evidence that long-term antidepressant treatment is beneficial”.

The other side, fairly stated: the largest withdrawal meta-analysis (79 studies, 21,002 patients) gives a difference of 8 percentage points within randomisation — enough to count, not enough to explain the whole phenomenon on its own. And the Récalt & Cohen reanalysis managed to extract usable data from only 14 of 30 trials, using a threshold they set themselves.

Where both sides now agree: that withdrawal and relapse overlap and are confounded in discontinuation trials. What is contested is how much of the measured difference is explained that way — and that has not been settled.

[30] Hengartner MP. Ther Adv Psychopharmacol 2020;10:2045125320921694 · [31] Hengartner MP, Plöderl M. Ther Adv Psychopharmacol 2021;11:20451253211032051 · [32] Récalt AM, Cohen D. Psychother Psychosom 2019;88(2):105–113 · [13] Henssler et al. Lancet Psychiatry 2024
DISPUTED ANTIPSYCHOTICS
SHORT VERSUS LONG TERM
2012 → 2017

With antipsychotics the short-term benefit is beyond dispute — the long-term one is not

I have to start from what is strong: a meta-analysis of 65 trials with 6,493 patients showed that antipsychotics reduce one-year relapse from 64% to 27% (RR 0.40; NNT 3). It is among the most solid findings in psychiatry and is not disputed here. The same study also records the cost: weight gain RR 2.07, movement disorders RR 1.55, sedation RR 1.50.

The question is what happens after the first year. In a randomised Dutch trial of first-episode psychosis, 103 of 128 patients were reassessed at seven years: 40.4% (21/52) of the dose-reduction group met the recovery criteria against 17.6% (9/51) of the maintenance group (χ²=8.2, p=0.004; adjusted OR 3.49, p=0.01, with no confidence interval reported). The difference lay entirely in functioning, not in symptoms.

The rebuttal, and it is a serious one: in the first two years that same reduction group had twice as many relapses (43% versus 21%). And a meta-analysis of 11 trials with 2,826 patients showed that patients on placebo deteriorate progressively over time, while those who continue remain stable — evidence in favour of maintenance.

There is also a 20-year observational study in which those not taking antipsychotics had better outcomes. But it is observational, not randomised: continuous prescribing over twenty years is a marker of more severe illness, so the comparison may reflect who became more severely ill rather than what the drug did. I report it with that limitation stated.

What ultimately stands: that dose reduction may bring functional benefit to a selected subgroup of first-episode patients, under close monitoring. Not that antipsychotics should be discontinued generally — that is not supported by the evidence and would be dangerous.

[33] Leucht S et al. Lancet 2012;379(9831):2063–71 · [34] Wunderink L et al. JAMA Psychiatry 2013;70(9):913–20 · [35] Harrow M, Jobe TH, Faull RN. Psychol Med 2014;44(14):3007–16 · [36] Harrow M, Jobe TH, Tong L. Psychol Med 2022;52(13):2681–91 · rebuttals: [37] Leucht S, Davis JM. Br J Psychiatry 2017;211(3):127–9 · [38] Takeuchi H et al. Br J Psychiatry 2017;211:137–43
PEER-REVIEWED ANTIPSYCHOTICS
BRAIN VOLUME
2005 → 2020

The brain under treatment: what the imaging studies measured, and what they did not

Whether antipsychotics change the structure of the brain has been measured in five different ways, and the findings converge on the existence of an effect — not on which drugs, and with limitations the researchers themselves state, and which we pass on.

An animal experiment. Macaques given haloperidol or olanzapine for 17–27 months, at plasma levels comparable to patients', had 8–11% lower brain weight than the control group, across all major regions, with loss of both grey and white matter. Six animals per group; the authors present it as a possible confounder for human studies, not as proof.

A human cohort. 211 first-episode schizophrenia patients, 674 MRI scans over 7.2 years on average: greater cumulative exposure to antipsychotics was associated with smaller grey-matter volumes after statistical control for illness severity and substance use — a “subtle but measurable” effect, in the authors' words. And their own limitation: it was not randomised; those receiving more treatment already had smaller volumes at baseline, and severity may confound despite the adjustment.

Two meta-analyses. Across 30 longitudinal studies (1,046 patients, 780 controls) grey-matter loss correlated with cumulative exposure and not with duration or severity of illness; across 18 studies (1,155 patients) the same, with one difference: with first-generation drugs the loss increased with dose, with newer ones it did not — if anything, the reverse. Both state that correlation is not causation; the second discloses authors' fees from pharmaceutical companies.

And one randomised trial — a small one. It is the strongest in design, because it removes the problem of “who was more severely ill”, and the narrowest in scope: 72 people, a single drug, a single diagnosis. patients with psychotic depression who had already recovered on olanzapine and sertraline were randomised to continue olanzapine or to placebo for 36 weeks. Those who continued the drug showed cortical thinning that the others did not — equivalent, by the authors' estimate, to losing about 1.2% of the cortex in 36 weeks, when the normal annual change in adult life is 0.35%. The same paper records the other side: those who relapsed without the drug also showed thinning, and the authors' conclusion is that where psychosis is present, the risk of untreated illness outweighs it — while the balance shifts where alternatives exist or the drug is given off-label. They also note that the findings may not apply to other antipsychotics.

WHAT THIS FINDING IS, AND WHAT IT IS NOT
IT ISIT IS NOT
Converging evidence from animals, cohorts, meta-analyses and one randomised trialProof that the change is irreversible or clinically harmful
A reason for the dose to be the lowest effective one and the duration justifiedA reason to stop — relapse without the drug is 64% versus 27% in the first year
Agreement on the existence of an effect — not on the drug: haloperidol in the comparisons, olanzapine in the only randomised trialThe same for every drug, dose and patient
An argument against off-label use — dementia, sleep, “agitation”An argument against treatment in psychosis

The practical significance is in the last row of the table. The same drugs measured here in psychosis are widely given to older people with dementia and to children off-label — see Part B and Part D. There the table reads the other way round: without the benefit that justifies the cost.

[64] Dorph-Petersen KA et al. Neuropsychopharmacology 2005;30(9):1649–1661 · [65] Ho BC et al. Arch Gen Psychiatry 2011;68(2):128–137 · [66] Fusar-Poli P et al. Neurosci Biobehav Rev 2013;37(8):1680–1691 · [67] Vita A et al. Biol Psychiatry 2015;78(6):403–412 · [68] Voineskos AN et al. JAMA Psychiatry 2020;77(7):674–683 · [69] Lieberman JA et al. Arch Gen Psychiatry 2005;62(4):361–370 · relapse: [33] Leucht S et al. Lancet 2012

Frequently asked questions

Short answers based on the text of this page. The sources for every figure are listed below.

What did the reanalysis of STAR*D show?

The largest antidepressant study ($35 million from the NIMH) reported a 67% cumulative remission rate in 2006. A reanalysis of the patient-level data under the original protocol (2023) gave 35.0%. The original investigators dispute the reanalysis.

Do continuation studies prove that antidepressants help long-term?

Not with certainty: nearly all randomise patients stabilised on the drug to 'continue' or 'switch abruptly to placebo', so they measure relapse protection and withdrawal together.

Does the same apply to antipsychotics?

The short-term benefit is beyond dispute: a meta-analysis of 65 trials (6,493 patients) shows one-year relapse falling from 64% to 27%. The long-term benefit has not been shown in the same way, and imaging studies converge on the existence of an effect on brain structure, not on which drugs.

Sources for this section

  1. [13]Henssler J, Schmidt Y, et al. Incidence of antidepressant discontinuation symptoms: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Psychiatry 2024. pubmednot archived
  2. [26]Pigott HE, Kim T, Xu C, Kirsch I, Amsterdam J. What are the treatment remission, response and extent of improvement rates after up to four trials of antidepressant therapies in real-world depressed patients? A reanalysis of the STAR*D study's patient-level data with fidelity to the original research protocol. BMJ Open 2023;13(7):e063095. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2022-063095metadata · archived 6.8.2026 · 1624bab7
  3. [27]Xu C, Kim TT, Kirsch I, Plöderl M, Amsterdam JD, Pigott HE. Restoring STAR*D: A Reanalysis of Drug-Switch Therapy After Failed SSRI Treatment Using Patient-Level Data with Fidelity to the Original STAR*D Research Protocol. medRxiv preprint, 12 February 2025. doi:10.1101/2025.02.10.25321991 — not peer-reviewed.metadata · archived 17.9.2026 · b8e717df
  4. [28]Xu C, Kim TT, Plöderl M, Kennedy KP, Kirsch I, Amsterdam JD, Pigott HE. Restoring STAR*D: A RIAT Reanalysis of Medication Augmentation Therapy After Failed SSRI Treatment. medRxiv preprint, 30 October 2025. doi:10.1101/2025.10.27.25338365 — not peer-reviewed.metadata · archived 6.8.2026 · 3c629f90
  5. [29]Rush AJ et al. The STAR*D Data Remain Strong: Reply to Pigott et al. Am J Psychiatry 2023. doi:10.1176/appi.ajp.20230869 — the original investigators' reply.metadata · archived 6.8.2026 · 564eecbc
  6. [30]Hengartner MP. How effective are antidepressants for depression over the long term? A critical review of relapse prevention trials and the issue of withdrawal confounding. Ther Adv Psychopharmacol 2020;10:2045125320921694. doi:10.1177/2045125320921694metadata · archived 6.8.2026 · 324f2d3e
  7. [31]Hengartner MP, Plöderl M. Prophylactic effects or withdrawal reactions? An analysis of time-to-event data from antidepressant relapse prevention trials submitted to the FDA. Ther Adv Psychopharmacol 2021;11:20451253211032051. doi:10.1177/20451253211032051metadata · archived 17.9.2026 · ccda45fd
  8. [32]Récalt AM, Cohen D. Withdrawal Confounding in Randomized Controlled Trials of Antipsychotic, Antidepressant, and Stimulant Drugs, 2000–2017. Psychother Psychosom 2019;88(2):105–113. doi:10.1159/000496734metadata · archived 17.9.2026 · 93803c09
  9. [33]Leucht S, Tardy M, Komossa K, Heres S, Kissling W, Salanti G, Davis JM. Antipsychotic drugs versus placebo for relapse prevention in schizophrenia: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet 2012;379(9831):2063–71. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60239-6metadata · archived 17.9.2026 · 9234f098
  10. [34]Wunderink L, Nieboer RM, Wiersma D, Sytema S, Nienhuis FJ. Recovery in remitted first-episode psychosis at 7 years of follow-up of an early dose reduction/discontinuation or maintenance treatment strategy. JAMA Psychiatry 2013;70(9):913–20. doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2013.19metadata · archived 17.9.2026 · 93fd807d
  11. [35]Harrow M, Jobe TH, Faull RN. Does treatment of schizophrenia with antipsychotic medications eliminate or reduce psychosis? A 20-year multi-follow-up study. Psychol Med 2014;44(14):3007–16. — observational, non-randomised. doi:10.1017/S0033291714000610metadata · archived 17.9.2026 · e166bd83
  12. [36]Harrow M, Jobe TH, Tong L. Twenty-year effects of antipsychotics in schizophrenia and affective psychotic disorders. Psychol Med 2022;52(13):2681–2691. doi:10.1017/S0033291720004778metadata · archived 6.8.2026 · 5eeaf9d4
  13. [37]Leucht S, Davis JM. Do antipsychotic drugs lose their efficacy for relapse prevention over time? Br J Psychiatry 2017;211(3):127–129. — rebuttal. doi:10.1192/bjp.bp.117.201103metadata · archived 17.9.2026 · cf50566b
  14. [38]Takeuchi H, Kantor N, Sanches M, Fervaha G, Agid O, Remington G. One-year symptom trajectories in patients with stable schizophrenia maintained on antipsychotics versus placebo: meta-analysis. Br J Psychiatry 2017;211:137–143. — rebuttal. doi:10.1192/bjp.bp.116.186007metadata · archived 17.9.2026 · 07be2d8f
  15. [64]Dorph-Petersen KA, Pierri JN, Perel JM, Sun Z, Sampson AR, Lewis DA. “The influence of chronic exposure to antipsychotic medications on brain size before and after tissue fixation: a comparison of haloperidol and olanzapine in macaque monkeys.” Neuropsychopharmacology 2005;30(9):1649–1661. doi:10.1038/sj.npp.1300710 · PMID 15756305.metadata · archived 17.9.2026 · ec865e41
  16. [65]Ho BC, Andreasen NC, Ziebell S, Pierson R, Magnotta V. “Long-term antipsychotic treatment and brain volumes: a longitudinal study of first-episode schizophrenia.” Arch Gen Psychiatry 2011;68(2):128–137. doi:10.1001/archgenpsychiatry.2010.199 · PMID 21300943 · PMC3476840.metadata · archived 17.9.2026 · 38efb719
  17. [66]Fusar-Poli P, Smieskova R, Kempton MJ, Ho BC, Andreasen NC, Borgwardt S. “Progressive brain changes in schizophrenia related to antipsychotic treatment? A meta-analysis of longitudinal MRI studies.” Neurosci Biobehav Rev 2013;37(8):1680–1691. doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2013.06.001 · PMID 23769814.metadata · archived 17.9.2026 · 79577924
  18. [67]Vita A, De Peri L, Deste G, Barlati S, Sacchetti E. “The effect of antipsychotic treatment on cortical gray matter changes in schizophrenia: does the class matter? A meta-analysis and meta-regression of longitudinal magnetic resonance imaging studies.” Biol Psychiatry 2015;78(6):403–412. doi:10.1016/j.biopsych.2015.02.008 · PMID 25802081.metadata · archived 17.9.2026 · b179ea61
  19. [68]Voineskos AN, Mulsant BH, Dickie EW, et al. “Effects of antipsychotic medication on brain structure in patients with major depressive disorder and psychotic features: neuroimaging findings in the context of a randomized placebo-controlled clinical trial.” JAMA Psychiatry 2020;77(7):674–683. doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2020.0036 · PMID 32101271 · PMC7330722.metadata · archived 17.9.2026 · cd5dffa7
  20. [69]Lieberman JA, Tollefson GD, Charles C, et al. “Antipsychotic drug effects on brain morphology in first-episode psychosis.” Arch Gen Psychiatry 2005;62(4):361–370. doi:10.1001/archpsyc.62.4.361 · PMID 15809403.metadata · archived 17.9.2026 · 5ede5ab2

Written by Petros Chatzianastasiou
I am not a doctor. Every claim cites its primary source. Any step you take with your own treatment, always in consultation with your treating doctor and under their monitoring and guidance.

About this site →
← PreviousOpen questionsNext →Sedatives