That psychiatric drugs are the third leading cause of death, after heart disease and cancer
It is perhaps the most widely circulated number in this field, and you will have seen it in many forms: “prescription drugs are the third leading cause of death”, “psychiatric drugs kill 539,000 people a year in the US and EU”. We followed the chain to its source. It is not a count. It is an estimate by extrapolation — and that is how its own author describes it; the word simply gets lost on the way.
What it rests on. The version about drugs in general was published in a medical journal in 2014, in a controversies section, with no data of its own; it cites a book by the same author. The version about psychiatric drugs exists in peer-reviewed form once, as far as we found: in a BMJ head-to-head debate in 2015, where the author explains the method. He takes mortality rates from studies — 1% a year for antipsychotics, starting from a meta-analysis in elderly people with dementia; 1% for benzodiazepines; 2% for antidepressants — applies them to Danish consumption at ages 65 and over, arrives at 3,693 deaths a year in Denmark, and scales them up to 539,000 for the US and EU. The phrase “third leading cause of death” does not appear in the BMJ text; it appears in the books and in website articles, from comparing 539,000 with heart disease at 600,000 and cancer at 575,000 in the CDC list for 2010.
Why it cannot stand as a number. Three points, none of which requires doubting the input studies. First, the CDC list of “leading causes of death” classifies the underlying cause recorded on the death certificate under ICD-10; adverse drug reactions have codes (Y40–Y59) but are rarely certified as the underlying cause — a few thousand deaths a year — so the “third place” is a comparison of an estimate with a classification that measures something else. Second, the 1% rate for antipsychotics comes from dementia patients in trials of 10–12 weeks — the population with the highest known risk, the same one that produced the finding in Part B — and is applied to all users aged 65 and over. Third, the scaling from 3,693 to 539,000 is a simple population ratio — about 146 times Denmark — so whatever holds for the input rates is multiplied with them. A rebuttal by Cochrane researchers was published in the same journal a few weeks later: that the debate's recommendations are not supported by the reviews it invokes.
The author himself, from the 2015 book to the 2024 version, also notes the limitation that decides everything: “you can only die once, and many people receive polypharmacy”. We keep it as what it is — an argument that deaths from psychiatric drugs in older people are underestimated, which this page shares on the strength of Part B. Not as the third number in a list on which it does not appear.
[87] Gøtzsche PC. Pol Arch Med Wewn 2014;124(11):628–634 · [88] Gøtzsche PC. BMJ 2015;350:h2435 · [89] Tovey D et al. BMJ 2015;350:h2952 · [90] Gøtzsche PC. Deadly Psychiatry and Organised Denial, 2015, ch. 14 · [91] Gøtzsche PC, website article, 16.04.2024 · [92] Lazarou J et al. JAMA 1998;279(15):1200–1205 · [93] Kvasz M et al. MedGenMed 2000;2(2):E3 · [94] NCHS Data Brief 548, 2026